The largest crowds, winning trophies in dominant fashion, and a tradition of attacking flair is enough for Melbourne Victory to comfortably claim the mantle of the A-League’s most successful club.
Its dominance over Melbourne Heart-cum-City is unquestioned, however, the tide is turning.
City want everything that its neighbours currently possess – a desire that has been fast-tracked by the City Football Group (CFG) and their seemingly boundless resources. On the pitch, John van’t Schip’s side is the league’s top scorer, and despite a form slump in the past fortnight, it would take a brave person to bet against City being crowned champions at season’s end.
The confirmation of club captain Carl Valeri’s season-ending illness was brought into greater light as the Wanderers dominated possession and territory en-route to salvaging a late, albeit deserved, equaliser last Saturday night.
City are not without problems through the team’s spine, particularly with Erik Paartalu’s departure and the suspension of Jacob Melling that rules him out of the derby.
Van’t Schip’s insistence on a modified back three has been a concern, something that could be helped if Alex Wilkinson is afforded his debut against City’s geographical rivals – something the player says he is ready and hungry for.
At the pointy end of the pitch, the partnership of Bruno Fornaroli and Harry Novillo has been devastating, and while Victory’s defensive unit was a particularly hard nut to crack against the Wanderers, City’s guile is unmatched on this season’s form.
While Victory’s creators are capable of producing moments of magic – a warning for the team with the most generous defence to certainly heed – these instances have been far too sporadic. Oliver Bozanic has struggled at times without the presence of Valeri, while Guilherme Finkler has struggled for consistency. There has been too much of Victory’s attacking play reliant on a moment of magic or fortune.
If City are able to get a strong foothold on the midfield area, the threat of Ivan Franjic and Michael Zullo on the flanks could sufficiently pin the current champions back – a ploy that was used to great effect by the Wanderers.
Statistical overview
Melbourne City are well represented in the A-League’s top scorer charts, with Bruno Fornaroli (15 goals, first), Harry Novillo (nine goals, fourth) and Aaron Mooy (seven goals, ninth). In comparison, Besart Berisha is the lone Victory presence, currently second in the standings with 14 goals.
In terms of assists, City are also the league’s benchmark, with Aaron Mooy (14 assists) comfortably leading the league in this particular facet of the game. Kosta Barbarouses (five) and Fahid Ben Khalfallah (four) come in equal third and fourth respectively.
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While City have been clearly superior in an attacking sense, conceding 33 goals in 18 A-League matches is not a kind stat. It pales in comparison with Victory’s far more respectable tally (22).
Predicted match pattern
With both teams locked on 28 points heading into the clash (W8, D4, L6) and Adelaide United sitting a point behind with a favourable fixture against the Central Coast Mariners to come on Sunday, a loss to either side all but ends the hopes of a highly sort after top two finish. This should ensure a fast and furious opening, in which Victory are expected to shade the possession, and perhaps territory stakes.
This could play into City’s hands as the best counter attacking-side in the competition, as it has done in the two previous Melbourne Derbies this season. While the threat of Victory’s title-winning frontline of Khalfallah, Barbarouses and Berisha can never be taken lightly, the trio is yet to truly dazzle this current campaign and could be countered.
Mooy’s quality in transition is perhaps his best attribute, and Victory’s approach is rarely to merely neutralise an opposition. As Kevin Muscat said after the recent 1-0 win against Sydney FC: “We want to be on the front foot, playing attacking football, and I’d rather die on my feet, than live on my knees”.
The attacking approach of both sides will be on display, while a 0-0 draw looks nigh on impossible.
Score prediction: Melbourne City 2 Melbourne Victory 1
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