Statistical view – Are Manchester City overpaying for Raheem Sterling?

Manchester City confirmed the signing of  Raheem Sterling on the weekend with a bid believed to be in the region of £49 million, having offers of £25 million and £35 million previously rejected. Many fans and neutrals alike have deemed the proposed fee as excessive, throwing around the label of a typically overrated, overhyped English wonderboy.

So what is Sterling’s true market value?

The first thing that needs to be taken into account is that Sterling meets the set requirements as a ‘home-grown’ player. The FA rules state that English clubs must have at least eight of these in their 25 registered man squad. Manchester City are on the hunt to bolster their stock of home-grown players, with the recent departures of Frank Lampard, James Milner and Scott Sinclair.

English status aside, where does he rank among the top wingers in Europe today? The below graph details the offensive contributions made by stand out playmakers for their clubs during the 2014-15 season:

*OCPG (Offensive Contribution per Game) is the goals and assists made by the player divided by the number of appearances made

As the statistics demonstrate, the 20-year-old remains a great margin off the best wingers in the game today. Admittedly, at such a young stage, he has the time and potential to reach these heights, however, this is potential only. History is crowded with similar names who never transformed into anything other than mediocre players. Sterling, while already good on the field, is not yet, and may never be a world class player. Some caution should be exercised by potential buyers and consequently, they should not value him as a world class talent yet.

So how does he compare to players of similar age and position in Europe’s top leagues?

It is difficult to compare players competing in different competitions, however, the above table will provide some indication as to where Sterling stands against the best young wingers in the business today. Interestingly, Memphis Depay, voted the best player in the Eredivisie last season and viewed by many as the ‘next Cristiano Ronaldo’, was purchased by Manchester United for a fee in the region of £25 million, about half of what Liverpool are expected to receive for Sterling. Similarly, Roberto Firmino, viewed by most as the replacement, was signed for £28.4 million after a very strong year in the Bundesliga.

At £49 million, the price also cannot be justified by the interest of other parties. Given this valuation, only clubs who see him as part of their starting XI would consider his acquisition, however, whom of the top sides in England and abroad would Sterling actually be a first choice regular? Of the top four English clubs, based on the 2014-15 table, Arsenal have publicly dismissed speculation stating that they are already overstocked in the position – Alexis Sanchez is a guaranteed starter on the left-wing, while Theo Walcott and Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain are players of large potential in their own right. Additionally, Manchester United appear to have a surplus of wingers on their books with Angel Di Maria, Ashley Young, Antonio Valencia, Juan Mata and the newly signed Depay. The champions, Chelsea, have the strong presence of current PFA Player of the Year recipient Eden Hazard on the left, with Willian and January signing Cuadrado, competing for a starting position on the right-wing. With Sterling not yet ready to join a European powerhouse such as Real Madrid or Bayern Munich, Manchester City are, by process of elimination, the only realistic option.

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A player meeting the home-grown status is not the sole benefit of signing English talent, as the EPL regularly sees foreign stars move abroad when a big money offer comes their way. Unlike English players, foreign stars did not grow up necessarily dreaming of playing in the Premier League specifically, and therefore may not hold it to the same status. High profile departures of the modern era include Xabi Alonso, Luka Modric, Cristiano Ronaldo and Luis Suarez. All of these took big money moves to Spain and left large gaps to fill in their former teams. On the contrary, top English players will more often than not join a big English club and remain there. Current examples include Wayne Rooney, John Terry, Steven Gerrard, Joe Hart and Theo Walcott. Youngsters such as newly named Liverpool captain Jordan Henderson and Arsenal youth product Jack Wilshere look likely to further this trend. Sterling is proving an exemption to this loyalty, his new employer, Manchester City, must therefore be aware that something similar may happen to them should a more attractive offer arrive down the track.

Furthermore, Sterling’s previous side, Queens Park Rangers, will be due 20% of his sale value. While this would not deter Liverpool to attain the best price possible, it must further their persistence to receive top dollar.

Even in htw 2014-15 season, there are plenty of examples of clubs acquiring top quality talent for a reasonable price, Manchester United have recently purchased the best right back in Italy, a World Cup winning midfielder and a winger of arguably higher potential, whilst spending less than Sterling’s expected £49 million sale fee. In many ways this sale reflects everyday life, you can price an item at anything you want, 99% of the market may scoff and walk away, but it only takes one cashed up buyer to agree to a sale.

Is Sterling worth the £49 million transfer sum agreed by the two teams? Probably not. Sterling may be one of England’s brightest young talents and a player who is classified as home grown in the EPL. However, it is clear Manchester City are overpaying for his services. Liverpool refused to budge on their valuation and are to be rewarded. All we can do is sit back and say “well played.”

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