As Perth Glory prepare to host A-League high-flyers Melbourne City at NIB Stadium on Sunday, the spotlight may be decided by the form of star imports Bruno Fornaroli and Andy Keogh.
The Irishman’s return in January has coincided with a return of nine wins, one draw and two defeats for Kenny Lowe’s side, including a spectacular 6-3 drubbing of Brisbane Roar.
It took the former Wolverhampton Wanderers striker three games to get back among the goals, but he has not looked back since, scoring in every match except in Glory’s 1-0 win away to the Wellington Phoenix.
Before re-signing for the Western Australian club, a move that was anticipated well ahead of the January window, the 29-year-old was spotted playing in amateur five-a-side matches to regain his razor-sharp touch. Imagine what he’d have done with a full pre-season?
Andy Keogh spotted in Perth playing futsal to keep fit. pic.twitter.com/L2tJw9o8ob
— Daily Football Show (@DFS_AUS) December 8, 2015
One man who has benefited from months of preparation and excellent form throughout the preseason is Fornaroli. The Uruguayan has taken the A-League by storm, and hinted that he would be capable of doing so in the early rounds of the FFA Cup against Wellington and Victorian NPL outfit Heidelberg United. John van’t Schip’s team scored 10 goals across these two matches and conceded once, with Fornaroli netting three times.
Arguably the competition’s new star hitman, he showed a vast array of ability with regards to linking up play and deadly finishing. Now every observer knows this run of form was a lot more than initial promise, as the conversation has now veered towards whether City’s diminutive Uruguayan is the best import in the A-League’s history.
If Fornaroli can inspire City to their maiden A-League crown while continuing his current scoring run, that question will extinguish all current doubt.
SIX records were broken last night as City and @BFornaroli marched their way into the record books. #ThisIsOurCity pic.twitter.com/eUoE9VKQmE
— Melbourne City FC (@MelbourneCity) March 29, 2016
Statistical comparison
While Keogh’s tally of nine goals pales in comparison to that of Fornaroli, who scored his 21st and 22nd of what has been a season of brilliance and consistency seamlessly coming together, the impact from a statistical view is rather similar.
The Perth striker’s record-equalling run of scoring has boosted his goals-per-game ratio to 0.81 (a statistic that does not include his 29-minute substitute cameo against Newcastle in round 16), while Fornaroli’s sits at the slightly healthier mark of 0.88 – a ratio made all the more impressive by the fact that it has been sustained over 25 matches.
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Glory’s excellent record since Keogh’s arrival has seen them collect more points than any other side except for Adelaide United, who have recorded a nine win, two draw and one loss ratio since round 14, equating to 29 points from a possible 36, compared with Glory’s 28.
Comparably, City’s record in that same period is seven wins, two draws and three defeats (23 points from a possible 36), in which Fornaroli has contributed 11 goals and three assists.
The biggest difference statistically comes in the disparity of the team’s fortunes when the star strikers find the net.
In the 15 matches which the Uruguayan has scored, City’s record stands at nine victories, two stalemates and four losses, compared with Glory’s hot-streak of seven wins and just the one draw when Keogh does.
On the other side of that statistic, on occasions that the pair fail to find the mark, both sides have understandably struggled. City’s record of four wins, three draws and two defeats equates to a lowly 44% winning run, while Glory’s two wins, one draw and loss is slightly better at 50%.
Fornaroli is noticeably superior in terms of shot accuracy, managing to fire 69.6% of his efforts on target, compared to Keogh’s modest 51.7%.
However, the Irishman has scored his nine goals from only 15 shots on target. A clinic in efficiency, and an invaluable asset for Lowe’s squad, yet equally so, it must be horrifically daunting for opposition managers.
So, what does all this mean?
This contest has more variables attached to it than simply being a matter of which striker can come out on top, or conversely, which defence will nullify either of the key attacking figures, because both sides possess a stellar supporting cast.
Both Keogh and Fornaroli are afforded excellent support, notably in the form of Glory’s Diego Castro, who largely goes under the radar, and City’s Aaron Mooy providing a consistent threat.
Who will have the bigger impact this Sunday? #PERvMCY
A-League goals per start
Andy Keogh – 0.81@BFornaroli – 0.88— Outside90 (@Outside90) March 31, 2016
Castro has worked sublimely in tandem with the speedy Chris Harold in alleviating the scoring pressure from Keogh, while the attack-minded defender Josh Risdon, and emerging talent Shane Lowry also providing great output during Glory’s resurgence.
It is a similar story for City. Mooy, who returns after an impressive week with the Socceroos, now finds himself in a midfield with real balance – something that van’t Schip has struggled to attain this season. Osama Malik’s deployment as a defensive-midfielder has worked wonders in recent matches, while Harry Novillo’s understanding with Fornaroli is now bordering on telepathic.
A win for City at NIB Stadium will solidify its grasp on top spot, while Perth could push as high as third with a victory and one point from the A-League’s pinnacle, if Adelaide United and Brisbane Roar lose their respective fixtures against the Newcastle Jets and Sydney FC respectively.
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