Melbourne Victory enter this finals campaign as the outsider, yet the closeness of this year’s ladder means that any of the six teams could realistically lift the trophy.
It has largely been a lacklustre season for Kevin Muscat’s men after they lost only one match in the opening eight rounds and claimed their maiden FFA Cup.
Long winless periods, below-par performances and a lack of results meant Victory qualified for the finals, but will have the toughest of all the playoff schedules, if they are to progress, with plenty of away trips including some Asian Champions League fixtures.
The team has come out strongly saying they are not there just to make up numbers and that they are a genuine title contender. After finishing sixth they will need to travel for the finals matches and, to progress beyond this first week, will need to contend with ACL commitments too. Melbourne is in a strange paradox whereby there is no expectation on them, due to where they finished on the table, but also some degree of pressure, due to their status as the reigning champions.
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Strengths
Victory’s main strengths lie in a few key personnel. Of course, the whole team is important and needs to be functioning well, but the likes of Besart Berisha and Carl Valeri in particular will be vital to the team’s chances of progression.
Berisha is a big game player and the fact that he is even allowed to play against the Roar is a big positive for the Melbourne side. Valeri’s return could not have come at a better time and there has been a visible change around the club with his return to good health and the starting squad.
Another key strength is the form of Lawrence Thomas. He has once again become the first choice goalkeeper, very late on in the season, and has had fans and pundits alike asking why it has taken this long to give him a start. He has made save after save and is a big plus for Melbourne.
Depending on how you look at things, Victory can also be seen as the most unpredictable of the finals teams. There is no real certainty as to which team will play – you could get the side that beat Brisbane 4-0 or get the that which lost to the same opposition 5-0.
While form of late suggests the club will not be on the receiving end of another demolition job, there really is very little way of telling just what kind of performance Victory will put in. But on their day, they are more than capable of defeating anyone.
Key Player – Besart Berisha
Berisha loves a big stage and there is none bigger than the finals series. He was set to miss out on the elimination final clash with the Roar, but challenged a recent suspension and saw it reduced to one game, which he has already served in round 27, on Tuesday night.
His reinstatement is huge for the Victory on a number of levels. Berisha is not only the club’s top scorer for the season with 17 goals, but has six goals in finals matches. In fact in nine games in the finals, the Albanian has only ever lost once.
But more than his goals, Berisha’s almost manic intensity and passion is infectious. If he is switched on and pressing aggressively early on in the game, the rest of the team will follow suit and when the entire Victory team is hungry and pressing, they are capable of incredible things – just look at last year’s grand final.
Just as important but for completely different reasons is Valeri. He is the captain of this team and a settling influence on the whole squad as well as being the anchor of the midfield. His presence has already benefitted the Victory and it is sure to continue to do so.
Recent Form
The Melbourne side is undefeated in all competitions in its last five games which included back to back wins in the league against Western Sydney Wanderers and Wellington Phoenix. Since the beginning of 2016, Victory has played 19 matches, in both the domestic and continental competition, for seven wins, nine draws and only three losses.
The team has scored 28 goals in this time period and conceded 21. Victory will take a lot of confidence out of the last few performances and the suggestion that the side is peaking at just the right time has some weight to it.
Finals Prediction
History is not in the Victory’s favour when it comes to the club’s chances of defending its title. It is a well-known stat in the league that no team outside the top two has ever claimed the championship. However, if ever there was a year for that streak to be broken, it would be this one.
Unfortunately for Kevin Muscat, their immediate opponent in the Roar, has never lost a finals match at home.
Matches between Melbourne and Brisbane have been impossible to predict this season. Victory’s 4-0 demolition in round 15 was just as surprising as the Roar’s 5-0 thumping of the reigning champions in round 23. Perhaps the most surprising of all was the 0-0 draw in the final round, which saw a Victory side which had barely played together hold John Aloisi’s men scoreless, denying them side the Premier’s Plate.
This elimination final will be a tough and tight contest, neither side will give an inch, but it will be highly entertaining. If Victory can win here, a date with Adelaide United is on the cards and that should be their exit point.
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