As early as this weekend, it is likely that at least some of the 24 teams that will in Euro 2016 will be decided. 19 will automatically qualify, the top two and one third-placed side from each group, and eight more will go into the lottery of the play-offs.
The result so far is the possibility of teams qualifying who have never appeared in a major tournament before (Iceland, Albania) or have not qualified for seemingly a generation (Austria, Northern Ireland, Wales, Hungary, Scotland). There are the under-performers (Netherlands, Russia), total non-performers (Greece), and high-performing underdogs (Faroe Islands). Already, at least three countries – Netherlands, Russia and Finland – have replaced coaches as a result of underwhelming performances.
This is a qualifying series that either makes for many very interesting scenarios, or more cynically, an expanded tournament format that rewards mediocrity. Yet it need not be – expansion of any tournament is inevitable with the rise in the number of competitive teams, and Europe has the strongest depth of such besides South America. It might be argued that besides the relatively short distances, the greater professionalism of Europe’s talent which sees players based throughout the continent is something of an equaliser, if it explains the rise of Iceland and the relative success enjoyed by other small nations.
In no way, however, is qualifying a reliable guide to how a team will perform in the actual tournament even with some of the continent’s big-hitters off the boil. On the other hand, there are are numerous nations in the next tier who must rate themselves a realistic chance of going deep in Euro 2016 should they qualify.
GROUP A
Iceland, on course to becoming the smallest nation ever to qualify for a major tournament, face their biggest test yet when they travel to the Netherlands to face an Oranje team who have stuttered in this campaign (including a loss in the opposite fixture) and are now under the management of Danny Blind. It may well be that the Dutch over-achieved in Brazil last year, with a weaker group of players in terms of individual talent compared to past decades.
Currently in third place, they will likely face even greater pressure in this game than their opponents, followed by an even tougher task away to Turkey on Sunday. Conversely, Iceland have lost just once in this campaign (away to the Czech Republic) and are realistically only two wins away from qualification. This means that even if they lose in Amsterdam on Thursday, their remaining games against Kazakhstan, Latvia and Turkey will very likely yield the results needed to qualify.
The Czech Republic, currently in second place, face Kazakhstan and Latvia and are expected to win both. This would likely seal the deal for them, and would put the top two places out of reach for the Netherlands and Turkey. That their final two games will be against these teams highlights the gravity of the situation, so one of these might end up claiming a play-off place by relying on other results. This means that Iceland and the Czech Republic will very likely have Group A sewn up.
While Kazakhstan have only one point in qualifying, their club sides have made more of an impression in Europe, some thirteen years after making the move from the AFC to UEFA. In the past Latvia have been difficult opponents who even qualified for Euro 2004, but none of that has been shown this time.
GROUP B
One of 11 undefeated sides in the qualifiers, Wales now have a chance to seal the deal if they defeat Cyprus away and Israel at home. Both of their opponents still have a chance of making it, with only three points separating Belgium, Israel, Cyprus and Bosnia-Herzegovina. This also makes Belgium’s next two games, home to Bosnia-Herzegovina and away to Cyprus, six-pointers for all teams involved. The Red Devils can either make second place more secure, or open the door to the three teams beneath them.
Israel will look at their game with Andorra as an opportunity to boost their goal difference and stake a claim for at least third place in the group. With away trips to Wales and Belgium, they may depend on results elsewhere to ensure at least a play-off place, but beating Andorra and Cyprus should just about do it.
Even if Wales were presumably to remain undefeated, there are endless sets of possible results in this group, leaving it a wide open contest for now between Belgium, Israel, Bosnia-Herzegovina and Cyprus to claim second and third place. For the Dragons it has been a disappointment so far after a credible World Cup showing, while Belgium are under ever more pressure to realise the promise of a golden generation.
GROUP C
In 2014, Spain repeated the errors of a Brazil side in 1966. A winning side lost the plot by virtue of staying loyal to the old guard for longer than reasonable. So have they hit the reset button in Euro 2016 qualifying? So far, only Slovakia have beaten them, and only Slovakia along with England can claim a 100% record in qualifying. In third place is Ukraine, who have won four and lost two against Vincente del Bosque’s men and the Repre.
Thus we have a team on top which has won all six, a team which has lost just once and won all others in second, and a team that has lost just twice in third. While Belarus and Macedonia are normally quite competitive, this has not been the case in these qualifiers.
Slovakia can seal their ticket for Euro 2016 this month if they are victories in the next two matches. It is quite likely that second place in the group will be decided when Ukraine host Spain in October, but Ukraine are all but assured of a minimum of third place anyway.
GROUP D
The reigning World Champions, Germany, find themselves one point behind the so far unbeaten Poland and only two points better-off than Scotland, who last qualified for a major tournament in 1998 and whose own football has been in a state of decline for years. On Friday, Joachim Low’s men will host Poland in a battle for leadership of Group D and the chance to exact revenge for their 2-0 loss in Warsaw last October. A win for Germany opens up a world of possibilities, but a win for the White Eagles will nearly guarantee them a place in Euro 2016.
It is most likely only a matter of what sequence these two finish the group in. This would be the third consecutive European Championships appearance for Poland, who co-hosted the tournament in 2012.
It will thus be left to Scotland and the Republic of Ireland to contest third place, Gordon Strachan’s squad hasobtained four points from their two meetings, giving them the edge so far. Scotland next play Georgia away, who are not having a great qualifying series so far, before hosting Germany. The Irish, on the other hand, have a trip to play Gibraltar in Portugal before hosting Georgia in Dublin, two games they are expected to win.
While Scotland host Poland in their penultimate game and a guaranteed three points at home to Gibraltar in their final game, a minimum of six will be enough for third place if the Republic of Ireland get nothing out of their final two games, Germany at home and Poland away.
Whichever side finishes at least in third place (and Scotland still have a theoretical chance of automatic qualification) may come down to who cracks first out of Germany or Poland. The Irish have drawn games with all three, but this may be a few too many points dropped already.
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