Will West Ham benefit from Manchester City's European schedule?

Manchester City were halted, with a heaving shudder, by Juventus in Europe this week. The Italian giant had yet to win in Serie A, but were oozing with exactly the sort of aristocratic nous that wins you these heavyweight, ding-dong European affairs. Manchester City’s feathers, which were standing at full height thanks to their perfect start to the Premier League campaign, have been squashed by this loss, more than a little, and they have only a few days to re-plump their plumage before West Ham visit the Etihad Stadium. Dank thoughts about exactly what plagues City in Europe can only be mulled over briefly before domestic business is resumed. Of course, for West Ham, it is ideal that their opponents are coming off such a deflating loss. But in addition to this, will City’s shortened preparation time also affect the outcome of this weekend’s fixture?

Perhaps the best way to judge this is to look at City’s post-Champions League results from last season. Was there a noticeable dip in form in the matches that were played directly after City’s European fixtures? And how did City perform in the league matches that followed losses in Europe, as opposed to wins?

Well, here’s the relevant data:

1-0 loss to Bayern Munich on Sep. 17 –> 1-1 draw with Chelsea on Sep. 21.

1-1 draw with Roma on Sep. 30 –> 2-0 win over Aston Villa on Oct. 4.

2-2 draw with CSKA Moscow on Oct. 21 –> 2-1 loss to West Ham on Oct. 24.

2-1 loss to CSKA Moscow on Nov. 5 –> 2-2 draw with QPR on Nov. 8.

3-2 win over Bayern Munich on Nov. 25 –> 3-0 win over Southampton on Nov. 30.

2-0 win over Roma on Dec. 10 –> 1-0 win over Leicester City on Dec. 13.

2-1 loss to Barcelona on Feb. 24 –> 2-1 loss to Liverpool on Mar. 1.

1-0 loss to Barcelona on Mar. 18 –> 3-0 win over West Bromich Albion on Mar. 21.

So, looking at the results from last season, some tentative conclusions can be teased out. After a loss or a draw in Europe – of which there were six last season – Manchester City lost or drew four out of the six league matches that followed, 66% of them. They scored 10 goals and conceded seven goals over those games. After a European victory – of which there were only two last season – Manchester City won both of their following league matches, scoring four goals in total and conceding none. Of the league matches following European ties for which they had only four days to prepare, instead of five or more, they lost or drew as many matches as they won (3-3).

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So, how much of this has an effect on this weekend’s match with West Ham? Well, none of it, not directly; the sample size of last season’s matches is too small to draw any iron-clad inferences from, and if we go back and count matches from the 13/14 or 12/13 seasons, well, the huge change in personnel that the City squad has experienced over that time would mean that any subsequent verdict would be even less relevant.

But the fact remains that last season, for City, after European disappointment, league results were more often negative than they were positive. West Ham were the beneficiaries of this war-weariness last season, and this season appear even more equipped to take advantage. The Hammers are already rocking thanks to a pair of stunning away victories, over Arsenal on the opening day, and then over Liverpool before the international break. These victories were hallmarked by a zesty, muscular counter-attacking style, one that their more lauded opponents found it impossible to resist. Manchester City, bleary-eyed and frustrated by their European travails, are next in line. City are yet to concede in the league, and West Ham are yet to fail to score in a league match (they have, incidentally, the second-best goal difference in the league, behind City); something will have to give. West Ham will be fresh and peaking, and their team is packed with dive-bombing runners ready to charge through tired defenders; Victor Moses’ incredible run against Newcastle, one that led directly to his team’s second goal, is a fine example of this.

Of course, on the other hand, losses can galvanise a team, shocking them into even more heightened levels of focus and ruthlessness. These first five stellar league matches, in which City have allowed only nine shots on target, have felt lovely and warm, especially with the sound of Chelsea’s horror start clanging in the background. Supremacy is excellent, but complacency can follow close behind, and West Ham might be the unlucky victims of a team renewed by their pain, refreshed by their cold European shower. There is no better time than the present to shake off bad habits.

After the Juve loss, Manuel Pellegrini denied that his team hadn’t learned from past European failures, or at least that if they hadn’t, it was of little consequence; “In the last two seasons we started by losing (at home) and both seasons we qualified for the next stage”, the Chilean said. Here he pointed calmly to past tendencies, ones that haven’t hurt his team; their tendency to stumble in the league matches that have followed European ties also hasn’t hurt them badly. Still, a perfect record is something to be kept intact, at all costs, and West Ham are primed and eager to shatter it.