It is do or die for Russia in their final group match against Wales in Toulouse, but the Dragons will be looking to spoil the party and secure top spot in the group.
Russia are on the verge of elimination from the Championships, with anything less than a win sending the Bears home at the group stage for the second consecutive edition. Even with a win, Leonid Slutsky’s men still have to rely on the other group match to see where they will lie, with a potential second place finish should England lose to Slovakia as a possibility.
Wales however could wrap up the group with a win over Russia and an English loss or draw. However, should the Dragons lose to Russia and Slovakia wins or draws their match, Wales could be eliminated from the competition. With a lot to play for on either side of the pitch, this group closer promises to be a scintillating match.
Key Battle – Igor Akinfeev vs Gareth Bale
Despite having conceded three goals so far in France, there is no denying CSKA Moscow goalkeeper Igor Akinfeev has been crucial to the Russian side. So with Russia playing for their right to remain in the competition, it may come down to how well Akinfeev can keep out the Welsh star player Gareth Bale.
Akinfeev had a fantastic time out against England in the opening match, being the difference between a draw and a heavy defeat. There were some worrying signs in the Russian defence in their match against Slovakia, but Akinfeev was not one of them, despite being beaten twice by well placed shots. However, with Akinfeev already being beaten once by a free kick this tournament, Bale will be salivating at the chance to have a shot at the Russian keeper.
Bale leads the Welsh side in goals scored in the tournament so far, with his two strikes both coming from free kicks. However, Bale is far from a one-trick pony, and his performances against Slovakia and England will attest to that. His creativity and positioning up front will cause a real issue for the Russian back line and there is every chance the Real Madrid star could dominate the match and decide Russia’s fate.
Team News
Russia enter the match needing to make changes after a disappointing showing against Slovakia in Lille. Manager Slutsky will likely promote Denis Glushakov to the starting XI after his two strong performances off the bench, involved in Russia’s goal against England and scoring against Slovakia. This move most likely will come at the expense of Schalke’s Roman Neustädter, who has failed to impress in the opening two matches. Slutsky might also be inclined to change things up front after Artem Dzyuba failed to fire against Slovakia, with Aleksandr Kokorin potentially being pushed up to the lone striker position and Roman Shirokov picking up the right attacking-midfielder position.
Wales on the other hand will most likely revert to the starting lineup they used against Slovakia, with manager Chris Coleman choosing a more attacking formation than the 5-3-2 used against the English in Lens. Chris Gunter and Neil Taylor will potentially be pushed up into a more attacking-midfielder position, providing width for the Dragons to utilise against an ageing Russian back line.
Head-To-Head
This will be the fifth meeting between the two sides, with Russia dominating the record with three wins to Wales’ zero. Their most notable meetings came in 2003 in the play-offs for Euro 2004, where Russia won the tie 1-0 on aggregate after a 21st minute Vadim Evseev goal in the second leg in Cardiff. After the match, it was revealed that Russia’s Egor Titov failed a drugs test after the first leg and this led to Wales unsuccessfully trying to get the Russians thrown out of the 2004 competition. Interestingly, Russia still has a player from that tie, with defender Sergei Ignashevich the only link between the 2003 and 2016 side.
Previous Meeting
The last meeting between the two sides was back in 2009 in the qualifying process for the 2010 World Cup. It was Russia who got the bragging rights, seeing off Wales with a convincing 3-1 win in Cardiff, thanks to goals from Igor Semshov, Roman Pavlyuchenko and Ignashevich. Neither side would make the 2010 World Cup, with Wales finishing fourth in the group and Russia losing in the playoffs to Slovenia.
Prediction
Russia needs a win. Anything else spells the end of their tournament. While Slutsky’s men will be pushing to secure all three points, this is a match that Wales could steal in the blink of an eye. Wales will be content with a draw as it will most likely see them through, but a late goal from Wales could see them secure top spot in a group they were not expected to win.
Russia 1 Wales 2
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