The 2014/15 season continues to be one of the closest in A-League history, with the top five teams only separated by two points after last weekend’s matches. Wellington Phoenix currently lead the pack, but Melbourne Victory, currently second, have a game in hand over their title rivals and could easily jump into pole position.
Perth Glory, who had lead the competition for so long until their recent slump, secured their first win since the beginning of January to remain within striking distance, while Adelaide United scraped past Newcastle 1-0 to do the same. Sydney FC trounced the Phoenix 3-0 on Sunday, but the sweetness of victory was somewhat tempered by the quality of their opponents, who were missing several players on international duty.
Without diminishing the importance of finishing first and winning the Premiers’ Plate, it is safe to assume that winning the Grand Final would be regarded as the more noteworthy achievement. Any member of the league’s ‘Big Five’ looks capable of lifting the trophy on May 17 (no offence Melbourne City, but you are not there yet), but to do that, the winners will have to negotiate their way through up to three sudden-death fixtures.
So out of the five teams considered good enough to take out the title, who has the best chance? Outside90’s Nick Amies examined all fixtures played between members of this season’s ‘Big Five’ and ranked the clubs in the below table:
At present, Adelaide United find themselves top of our table, but close behind are the Phoenix and Perth Glory, who could jump above Josep Gombau’s side with a win before the finals. Melbourne Victory, who are the only side yet to lose against Adelaide, can only draw level with the Reds if they win their meeting with Wellington this weekend. Given that Sydney FC are one of the form sides in the second-half of the season, it is interesting to see them propping up our table with just ten points from nine games. In fact, had they not encountered an under-strength Wellington on Sunday they could still be averaging under a point a game.
Remaining top five fixtures
Round 24 – Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory
This weekend’s meeting between the Phoenix and the Victory shapes up as the game that could decide the Premiers’ Plate. If the Phoenix can bounce back from their defeat to Sydney and secure the points, the title would then be theirs to lose. However, a win for Kevin Muscat’s side, combined with their game in hand, would provide them with an unassailable lead. It is worth noting that the Victory have failed to win their last seven games against other teams in the top five, while Wellington were on a five-match winning run before tasting defeat against Sydney.
Round 24 – Sydney FC vs Adelaide United
The Sky Blues will be looking for revenge after being on the wrong side of a 3-0 scoreline the last time these sides met at Allianz Stadium. Adelaide will be without talismanic midfielder Marcelo Carrusca and have lost the last three games he has missed this season. Sydney will welcome back striker Marc Janko from duty with the Austrian national team and have only lost one of their last eleven.
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Round 25 – Perth Glory vs Sydney FC
Graham Arnold’s side continue their difficult run-in with a trip out West, but the once dominant Glory are still struggling to recapture their early-season form. A win over the Wanderers may have broken their drought, but Perth have not at home against a top-five side since they bested Wellington in round seven.
Round 27 – Wellington Phoenix vs Sydney FC
Wellington will be looking for retribution in this fixture after Sunday’s result, with the added reward of potentially securing the Premier’s Plate on Kiwi soil depending on how things go in the lead-up. A loss for either side could be catastrophic at this point, with the potential to knock a team even in fifth spot out of the finals series.
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