For the third time in six weeks, Brisbane Roar and Melbourne Victory go head-to-head in another huge A-League game – only this time, it is the finals series.
After the disappointment of last week’s 0-0 draw against the same opponents, ruling them out of the premiership race, Brisbane have had to regroup back in home surroundings with the aim of exacting revenge.
For the Victory, they welcome back a host of big names, including Besart Berisha, who has had his ban reduced in a huge boost for the Victory.
Key Battle – Lawrence Thomas vs Brisbane’s Attack
This fixture represents more of a mental battle than anything else. Yes, the midfield versus midfield is important. Yes, the battle of the strikers will have a huge say, and North versus Berisha will be intriguing, but the most important clash comes in the form of Victory goalkeeper Lawrence Thomas against the Brisbane attack.
After thwarting shot after shot last week, keeping a clean sheet and bringing the Roar’s premiership hopes back down to earth, Thomas will have huge role to play once again. At first, the move from Muscat to replace Danny Vukovic with Thomas raised many some eyebrows, but the 23-year-old has repaid the faith over and over again.
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For Brisbane, they have to leap over the mental hurdle of last week, regroup, and work on a way to combat the form of Victory’s goalkeeper. Key to Brisbane’s play will be in incisiveness of passes in the front third. While Brisbane may have the most passes in the competiton (14,037), they have the fewest percentage of any team in the final third, at only 12.7%. The Roar currently have five attackers all fit and ready to play, and after winning each of their last four matches at home, it may just be home comforts that the Roar need to overcome the Victory.
Team News
In a huge boost for the Victory, met with loud groans from all Roar fans, Besart Berisha has had his suspension reduced, meaning he will be available for the match. This decision will send shockwaves around the finals series and provides a significant shot in the arm to Victory’s finals hopes. The former Brisbane striker has managed 17 goals this season, continuing his domination as one of the premier strikers the A-League has ever seen.
CrownBet match odds at time of publishing
In more good news for the Victory, having rested key players in last week’s match against the Roar, they are able to welcome back the likes of Oliver Bozanic, Matheiu Delpierre and Carl Valeri. This creates a team of well rested players ready to prove the doubters wrong.
For Brisbane, coach John Aloisi has a full squad at his disposal, with a plethora of attacking options available.
Head-to-Head
Overall, Melbourne lead the Roar in the head-to-head comparision, 15 wins to 11, and in the last six fixtures between these two teams, Melbourne have won four. However, the last two fixtures have resulted in a loss and draw for the Victory, including the 5-0 rout last time these two teams met at Suncorp Stadium
Previous Meeting
As mentioned above, the previous round was the last time these two teams met, with a 0-0 draw stopping the Roar from taking out first place on the A-League ladder.
Prediction
Both teams have quite an imperious record in A-League play-offs. For Brisbane, they have won six of their last eight finals and have never lost a play-off on home soil in the A-League. In the case of the Victory, they have won their last two finals by a combined 6-0 scoreline and have not conceded more than a single goal in any of their last eight play-off fixtures dating back to the 2009-10 season.
But on current form, and the fact that the match is being played at Suncorp, Brisbane should be classed as favourites. With a home record this season of 11 wins, two draws and only one loss, Brisbane’s home form is imperious, as the Victory found out in the fixture back in round 23. The inclusion of Barbarouses this time should make the game closer, but Brisbane may just clinch the win.
Brisbane Roar 2 Melbourne Victory 1
*CrownBet odds at time of publishing are subject to change
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