With the Socceroos hosting Kyrgyzstan on Thursday night in Canberra, a bumper crowd would no doubt reinvigorate the discussion about an A-League side in the region. As the controversy around Wellington Phoenix’s future continues, several commentators, including Ned Zelic, have stated that the next team to enter the competition should be a club from the nation’s capital.
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Canberra already has quite a lot going for it. Canberra has a large player base for its size, with just under 15,000 players registered with Capital Football in 2014. While this figure does not match the slightly larger participation numbers of the Sutherland Shire (17,500 from Football NSW’s 2014 report); another rival for any new A-League side, it is still very encouraging in the eyes of the FFA.
The governing body could be worried about the potential market in Canberra, considering the city itself only has a population of around 381,000. However, surrounding regions could push that number up to near 500,000 as a potential Canberra bid would not be encroaching on any other A-League side, unlike Sutherland’s potential impact upon Sydney FC. This already puts Canberra ahead of several current A-League sides in terms of population, including Wellington (394,000), Central Coast (312,000) and Newcastle (308,000) and in the eyes of the FFA this would be a big plus, especially as one of the main reasons against the Phoenix’s inclusion in the league is their lack of support.
Support is something that Canberra has been able to prove it can build several times, with the most recent and shining example being the 2015 Asian Cup which saw seven games held in the nation’s capital. Despite not hosting a single Australian game, Canberra drew an average of 11,771 people per game, higher than the average attendance for five A-League clubs. However, it can be argued that this great figure could be attributed to the fact that the games were part of a major international tournament, and any form of consistent domestic football could draw a lower attendance.
This week’s World Cup Qualifier between Australia and Kyrgyzstan will be a key litmus test for the FFA to see whether a prospective audience can be found in Canberra. A great crowd and Canberra’s bid will look significantly better, but a mediocre crowd could cause more damage than good. With a predicted crowd of over 20,000 it appears that Canberra is willing to go and support, but with poor weather forecast for Thursday night attendance numbers could be affected. The figure is certainly achievable, with 20,032 fans turning up for a 2009 Asian Cup qualifier against Kuwait, but the FFA will need a more recent statistic when examining potential expansion.
Another plus for Canberra is their connection to other top tier competition already. Canberra has a side in the W-League already in the form of Canberra United and the side is one of the most successful in the league, holding two championships to their name. With the A-League’s desire to have parity between both leagues, it would make common sense to include Canberra in this and have the men’s league adopt Canberra. Canberra United is also one of the most supported W-League sides, pulling in an average of 891 fans per match, ranked only second behind Melbourne Victory based on available figures.
But what are some issues against the Canberra bid? Most appear to be ones set by the FFA and their push to have more clubs based in major cities thanks to their ‘Whole of Football’ plan. While one could argue that Canberra is a major city in terms of importance, it is just as easy to argue that the population is not there to make it a major city and if the FFA is to brandish Canberra with the title of major city, then all cities of a similar size; such as Wollongong, Gold Coast, Townsville, Geelong, should be allowed the same.
It also appears another issue could be funding. The previous official bid for Canberra to have a team in the A-League; A-League4Canberra, drew in six million dollars in financial support, thanks to thousands of registered foundation members, committed investors and local government funding. However, it fell two million short of the capital sought by the FFA to make a viable side. While the previous bid was from 2008 to 2012, it could be argued that football has continued to grow both in the capital and in the country as a whole, and a new attempt might be enough to get the Canberra bid funded. However, at this moment it appears that no new financial backers are willing to support the Canberra bid, something that puts it a lot further behind the Sutherland bid and the rumored Wollongong bid as they both have potential financial backers.
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But for now it seems the positives outweigh the negatives of a Canberra bid. The World Cup Qualifier this week will be a big indicator as to how much Canberra wants an A-League side, as strong numbers could help the FFA see value in the market. With Canberra already having two top tier sides in the past in Canberra City and Canberra Cosmos; both of which failed because of poor on-field performance, weak attendance and financial troubles; they cannot afford to fail a third time. But at the moment, Canberra is looking like one of the safest options for any new expansion or replacement into the A-League, and only time will tell if the FFA legitimately pull it into the conversation or continue to let it look in from the outside.
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